According to the Giornale dell’arte, there are three protagonists – Vedova, Birolli, and Afro – of 20th-century Italian painting who show divergent economic valuations, between moderate rises, sharp declines, and opportunities for collectors.
How is the market for Emilio Vedova moving today?
In the case of Emilio Vedova (1919-2006), the gestural strength and energy of the sign, often compared to American Action Painting, do not fully reflect in the valuations. His listings remain far from international levels, with prices not differing much from those ten years ago.
Over a horizon of more than 25 years, the overall increase is rather contained, amounting to +38%, with market peaks consolidated and stable over time. The absolute record belongs to “Tensione n.4” from 1959 (145.5 x 196 cm), auctioned on May 31, 2017, by Dorotheum in Vienna for 792,000 euros.
In second place is “Ciclo 61/62 n.2”, dated 1961-62, oil and collage of 146 x 200 cm, sold for 776,000 euros on May 26, 2008, by Christie’s in Milan. However, even after 17 years, a similar work would hardly exceed that figure today, indicating a solid market but lacking euphoric jumps.
Overall, collectors favor works from the late 1950s, considered the happiest period. Emblematic, in this sense, is the result of “Spagna n.4” from 1959 (119 x 120 cm), offered by Sotheby’s in Milan on November 26, 2025, and sold for 571,000 euros, the highest price recorded in the last 12 months.
That said, opportunities are not lacking: small historical works from the 1960s remain purchasable for less than 40,000 euros, a range where the quality-to-cost ratio can be interesting for those looking at the medium term.
Why has Afro lost ground after the 2011 highs?
While Vedova maintains substantial stability, the path of Afro (1912-1976) appears quite different. His “star” shone brightly for at least a decade, between 2005 and 2015, only to lose intensity and appeal among a part of the collecting community.
Already on October 16, 2006, at Sotheby’s London, “Golfo degli aranci” (1957, 115 x 147 cm), a work of great lyrical tension, had reached 467,000 pounds, equivalent to 693,000 euros, with strong interest from foreign buyers, particularly British. At the time, his valuations were in marked progress compared to the late 1990s.
From the late 1990s until the mid-2010s, Afro’s prices had essentially doubled. However, since then, a slow but steady decline has begun, so much so that today valuations are 52% lower than the peak levels of 2011, a scenario that may intrigue those who choose contrarian strategies.
In 2025, only one painting exceeded the 100,000 euros mark, and it is not a mature masterpiece but rather a significant work from 1952, linked to the Gruppo degli Otto season. It is “Ritmi fermi” (110 x 70 cm), auctioned for 108,000 euros by Sotheby’s Milan on May 28, 2025.
Additionally, also at Sotheby’s Milan, on November 26, 2025, “Il pendolo” from 1962, mixed media of 39 x 55 cm, stopped the hammer at 76,000 euros. Compared to past peaks, today’s results clearly indicate that the golden times are distant, while still leaving room for possible returns of interest in the long term.
Why is Renato Birolli’s market at historic lows?
The case of Renato Birolli (1905-1959) is even more complex. His artistic journey traverses different languages, resisting any label: from the early works in the Corrente movement to the Post-cubism of the late 1940s, reaching, in the 1950s, a personal form of lyrical abstraction.
This trajectory, articulated and experimental, has made it difficult for the market to synthesize his identity, hindering a clear commercial placement. Thus, his research, often original and courageous, has been evaluated with excessive severity, especially in terms of continuity of demand and recognition of value.
Currently, his valuations are at minimal levels, with a substantially flat trend since 2019. In 15 years, the overall decline has reached 74%, and only works from the second half of the 1950s still arouse some interest from collectors more attentive to historical content.
A painting from the most famous series, “Incendio nelle Cinque Terre” from 1956 (60 x 50 cm), was auctioned on November 26, 2024, by Il Ponte in Milan for 28,000 euros. Additionally, another “Incendio nelle Cinque Terre”, dated 1957 and of larger dimensions (114 x 143 cm), holds the record: on October 24, 2005, Christie’s London auctioned it for 131,000 pounds.
How do these artists compare with indices and financial markets?
The analyses and data related to Vedova, Afro, and Birolli have been elaborated by Roberto Capitanio exclusively for Il Giornale dell’Arte. The goal is to measure the economic performance of each author over a 15-year horizon, relating it to comparable segments.
In particular, the indices consider the performance of a specific sector of their market, calculating the average results obtained at Italian and international auction houses. Subsequently, these data are compared with the performance of gold and major stock indices.
The reference for the Italian stock exchange is the FTSE MIB index, while for the American market, the benchmark is the Standard & Poor’s 500. Additionally, the precious metal is used as an alternative comparison term to traditional financial asset classes.
Overall, the picture that emerges shows how some artists listed on the stock exchange, particularly in the historical Italian post-war segment, offer divergent paths: moderate growth for Vedova, a marked reduction for Afro, and a true collapse for Birolli. It is precisely in these differences that, according to many market readings, the few but concrete opportunities for the most patient collectors lie today.
As expert in digital marketing, Amelia began working in the fintech sector in 2014 after writing her thesis on Bitcoin technology. Previously author for several international crypto-related magazines and CMO at Eidoo. She is now the co-founder and editor-in-chief of The Cryptonomist and Econique.
She is also a marketing teacher at Digital Coach in Milan and she published a book about NFTs for the Italian publishing house Mondadori, while she is also helping artists and company to entering in the sector. As advisor, Amelia is also involved in metaverse-related project such as The Nemesis and OVER.
