Between expectations and caution, the art auctions in 2025 enter the crucial phase of the year, with the market seeking signs of a turnaround after complex months.
Art auctions 2025: can the market restart in November?
The houses Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips are preparing for November with an expected volume of at least $1.6 billion. The flagship sales begin on November 17 and could indicate if the recovery is underway, after lukewarm sales, fair postponements, and gallery closures.
Overall, the stakes are high: the outcomes of November will be seen as a litmus test for the high-end art market. However, the signals of 2025 show a heterogeneous landscape, with divergent performances among categories.
How M.F. Husain rewrote records in New York
On March 19 in New York, the “South Asian Modern and Contemporary Art” sale by Christie’s saw M.F. Husain break all predictions. Untitled (Gram Yatra) (1954) exceeded the high estimate of $3.5 million, reaching $13.8 million including fees, almost half of the total auction of $24.9 million.
It was the first work of South Asian Modernism to surpass $10 million and more than doubled the artist’s previous record set in 2022. Additionally, the second top lot, Black Sun (Le Soleil Noir) (1953) by Syed Haider Raza, stopped at $2.3 million.
That said, international attention for Tyeb Mehta, Raza, and Husain is now global, after years of regional consolidation. In December, a new museum dedicated to Husain will open in Doha, confirming the institutional push.
Why didn’t Riggio’s Mondrian surpass the art record?
On the evening of May 12, the masterpiece by Piet Mondrian Composition with Large Red Plane, Bluish Gray, Yellow, Black and Blue (1922), the jewel of Leonard Riggio’s collection, totaled $47.6 million at Christie’s in New York.
The estimate “over $50 million” brought it close to the artist’s record of $51 million (Sotheby’s, 2022, for Composition No. II, 1930). To beat it, the hammer price would have had to exceed $44.3 million. Additionally, the single-owner Riggio (39 works, estimate $252–$326 million) achieved $271.9 million.
According to Katya Kazakina, the result raised the question “at what cost?”, as the proceeds would have remained about $26 million below the guaranteed level. That said, the overall total confirmed the appeal of the name and provenance.
The Giacometti bust that found no buyer
On May 13 at Sotheby’s New York, the 1955 bronze Alberto Giacometti, Grande tête mince (Grande tête de Diego), with a request of $70 million, remained unsold. It was the most expensive lot of the May season and had no financial guarantee.
The seller, real estate entrepreneur Stefan Soloviev, had opted for an “enhanced hammer,” a special agreement for high-value items where the auction house waives the seller’s commission and sometimes grants the seller a portion of the buyer’s premium, in exchange for the delivery of the item.
However, the operation did not pay off. Additionally, the trophy segment is in decline: between 2023 and 2024, sales over $10 million decreased by 44%.
In 2024 only three works exceeded $50 million, compared to double in 2023 and triple in 2022. That said, buyer selectivity does not imply a lack of demand, but greater discipline on price.
Lalanne estate: sculptural design in the spotlight
On June 11, a Grand Rhinocrétaire II by François-Xavier Lalanne surprised Sotheby’s New York: sold for $16.4 million against an estimate of $5 million. The famous “rhinoceros desk,” in gilt bronze, combines function and fantasy, a hallmark of Les Lalanne.
The model dates back to 1964, while the sold example is from 2003. A few weeks earlier, in Paris, Bar aux Autruches had reached €11.1 million (equivalent to $12.9 million). The artist’s record remains $19.4 million in 2023, according to the Artnet Price Database.
2025 records and related art auctions
In the fall of 2025, Di Donna and Ben Brown Fine Arts inaugurated on Madison Avenue “Magritte and Les Lalanne: In the Mind’s Garden,” the first direct comparison between the two surrealist worlds. Additionally, there is a growing attempt to shift Les Lalanne from pure design to the canon of contemporary art.
Canaletto dominates: are the Old Masters growing again?
On July 1 in London, Christie’s sold for $43.9 million Venice, the Return of the Bucintoro on Ascension Day by Canaletto, painted in the 1730s. It is the second-highest price ever for an Old Master. Rumors about Jeff Bezos as the buyer were denied by insiders.
The sector showed dynamism: between January and June, compared to the first half of 2024, sales grew by +24.4%, up to $289.5 million. Additionally, another Venetian view by Canaletto will lead the Old Masters sale in New York in February, with an estimate of $30 million.
Paris at the center: the Modiglianis attracting capital
On October 24, at the “The Modernites” sale by Sotheby’s Paris, two portraits by Amedeo Modigliani captured attention. Bust of Elvira (1919) more than tripled the estimate, closing at $31.3 million after a bidding war among seven bidders.
Shortly after, Raymond (1915) achieved $12.4 million. The works, consigned just a few days earlier, have consecrated Paris as a hub for European blue-chip art. Additionally, the Modigliani market remains solid but vigilant, due to the historical presence of fakes and controversial attributions.
Catalogue raisonné and institutional demand
The artist’s record is $170.4 million for Nu couché (1917–18), Christie’s New York, 2015. Pace Gallery will collaborate with the Institut Restellini to publish the catalogue raisonné in March 2026. At Art Basel Paris, Pace sold a Modigliani for just under $10 million. Insights on Sotheby’s Paris.
Overall, 2025 highlights multi-speed markets: the Old Master is growing, the contemporary trophy is selective, and sculptural design is reaching new heights. The November sales will tell if the 2025 auctions will confirm the restart or remain a technical rebound.
As expert in digital marketing, Amelia began working in the fintech sector in 2014 after writing her thesis on Bitcoin technology. Previously author for several international crypto-related magazines and CMO at Eidoo. She is now the co-founder and editor-in-chief of The Cryptonomist and Econique.
She is also a marketing teacher at Digital Coach in Milan and she published a book about NFTs for the Italian publishing house Mondadori, while she is also helping artists and company to entering in the sector. As advisor, Amelia is also involved in metaverse-related project such as The Nemesis and OVER.
