Understanding how to invest in art requires an approach based on concrete historical evidence, overcoming old beliefs and the simple intuitions of traditional collectors.
Do Michael Moses’ discoveries challenge old beliefs?
An exhaustive analysis conducted by economist Michael Moses over a 25-year period, from 2000 to 2025, questions entrenched industry beliefs. The study examined a database of about 45,000 resale transactions for works purchased starting in 1970.
These findings were presented during an online meeting promoted by the renowned research center ArtTactic.
Furthermore, the expert boasts a solid academic reputation at the Stern School of Business at New York University.
In 2002, he co-created with partner Jian Ping Mei the famous Mei Moses Index, a scientific tool later acquired by Sotheby’s in 2016 to track financial trends in collecting.
Today, through his new venture ArtistIP, Moses continues to provide an analytical view of the market based on real data.
Do returns vary based on price range?
In essence, the research highlights how purchasing masterpieces at extremely high prices does not guarantee better financial returns. On the contrary, transactions below $50,000 record high growth rates, though balanced by a strong risk of loss. Overall, both the level of risk and performance tend to progressively decrease as the initial expenditure increases.
This dynamic finds immediate confirmation in the data related to the first quarter 2026 auctions at giants like Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips. Below is the distribution of performances recorded on the secondary market:
| Purchase Range | Average Return (Q1 2026) |
| Below $10,000 | 6.8% |
| Below $50,000 | 3.7% |
| Below $1 million | 1.9% |
| Above $1 million | -1.3% |
Does staying out of the market favor profit?
That said, the study also debunks the idea that a long withdrawal from the scene increases the value of lots. The returns on works are significantly higher when they return to auction within 10 years of the initial purchase.
However, the volatility of these quick operations increases fourfold. This results in a risk for gain three times higher than long waits.
For comparison, data from the first quarter of 2026 reveals that resale within 5 years generates an average of 7%. This percentage drops to 3.5% under 10 years and to 1.4% after 20 years. Conversely, private collections held for over half a century maintain a return of 4.9%. They present a weighted risk of 0.43%, showing stability comparable to U.S. Treasury bonds.
How to structure a conscious purchasing strategy?
In conclusion, the duration of ownership and the initial cost determine the financial profile of the asset.
Before investing in art, it is essential to understand whether the purchase is for short-term speculative purposes or acts as a value reserve against inflation on a generational basis.
As expert in digital marketing, Amelia began working in the fintech sector in 2014 after writing her thesis on Bitcoin technology. Previously author for several international crypto-related magazines and CMO at Eidoo. She is now the co-founder and editor-in-chief of The Cryptonomist and Econique.
She is also a marketing teacher at Digital Coach in Milan and she published a book about NFTs for the Italian publishing house Mondadori, while she is also helping artists and company to entering in the sector. As advisor, Amelia is also involved in metaverse-related project such as The Nemesis and OVER.
